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发布时间:2021-08-06 00:14
本文摘要:When the Apple tree is shaken, the effect is felt in the lower branches — the myriad companies supplying the hundreds of parts that go into a smartphone.当美国苹果公司(Apple)这棵树木发抖时,下边的枝干——为智能手机获得数以千计构件的诸多企业——都是会遭受蔓延到。


When the Apple tree is shaken, the effect is felt in the lower branches — the myriad companies supplying the hundreds of parts that go into a smartphone.当美国苹果公司(Apple)这棵树木发抖时,下边的枝干——为智能手机获得数以千计构件的诸多企业——都是会遭受蔓延到。The tree has taken some shaking this year. Of the two companies that dominate the smartphone sector, Apple last quarter reported the first annual decline in iPhone sales volumes. Samsung has been burnt by the furore around the exploding Galaxy Note 7.2020年,这棵树木经常会出现了一丝发抖。

做为在智能手机行业占到主导性的俩家企业,iPhone上一季度汇报iPhone本年度销量初次经常会出现降低,而三星(Samsung)仍在承受Galaxy Note 7发生爆炸事故所造成气愤的摧残。More broadly, Gartner, the consultancy, forecasts smartphone sales to rise just 7 per cent this year, half the rate of 2015, adding to worries that the vast industry formed about the production of smartphones will soon be starved of growth.更为广泛看来,咨询管理公司低德纳(Gartner)预测分析2020年智能手机销量将只持续增长7%,仅有所为二零一五年增速的一半,缓解了针对围绕智能手机生产制造组成的丰厚产业链快速将难寻持续增长的焦虑。“With sales of 1.5bn a year, smartphones are a monster market,” says Steven Pelayo, tech analyst at HSBC, who points to the relatively smaller PC and tablet markets. “It’s been a supercycle that has cannibalised everything. But what’s the next big driver?”“一年销量约10亿部,智能手机是一个巨大销售市场,”汇丰银行(HSBC)高新科技投资分析师德莫特.佩拉大概(Steven Pelayo)说道,他以较为较小的个人计算机和平板销售市场为比照。

“这是一个消化吸收了一切的非常周期时间。但下一股巨大柴油发动机是啥?”That question is ricocheting around the boardrooms and factory floors across Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and China. Apple alone relies on more than 200 suppliers for its products, the vast majority based in Asia.这一难题已经日本、中国台湾、日本及中国内地的股东会会议厅、工厂车间内伴着。

仅有iPhone一家的商品就仰仗高达200家经销商,在其中绝大部分位于亚洲地区。As chief executive of Japan Display, which generates 85 per cent of its revenues from smartphone makers and half from Apple, Mitsuru Homma knows the quandary only too well.日本显示屏企业(Japan Display, JDI)CEO本间差役(Mitsuru Homma)最准确这一困境,该企业85%的盈利都来源于智能手机生产商,一半的盈利来源于iPhone。

“If we stay with smartphones, then five to 10 years later JDI will probably no longer exist,” he says. “I feel very much the sense of crisis.”“如果我们以后固守着智能手机,那5到十年后,JDI很有可能将荡然无存,”本间充说,“是我较强的紧迫感。”Even the Japanese government, JDI’s main shareholder, is in agreement, he adds. The display maker is looking to diversify into supplying the devices linked to the internet of things and artificial intelligence.乃至做为JDI关键公司股东的日本政府部门也持有完全一致见解,他补充说道。这个显示器生产商因此以谋取将业务拓展至供货与物联网技术和人工智能技术涉及到的机器设备。Mr Homma sees opportunities in self-driving cars, which will require interactive screens and maybe entire smart dashboards as well as medical monitors where the highest resolution can be, literally, a matter of life or death, and virtual reality.本间充在无人驾驶汽车、医疗显示屏及其虚拟现实技术行业找到机会。

无人驾驶汽车务必互动式显示屏或是一整块多功能仪表盘,医疗显示屏的最少屏幕分辨率本质上面有很有可能关乎循环。Cars also feature in Sony’s plans, along with the internet of things. The Japanese consumer electronics group staked its fortunes on image sensors and now boasts a 40 per cent market share by value. “Image sensors are input devices, so we believe there are new markets out there,” says Tsutomu Haruta, general manager.在sony(Sony)的整体规划中,汽车与物联网技术也占据最重要影响力。这个日本消费电子产品集团公司将运势遣在影象感应器上,现如今自称按使用价值算术占有这一销售市场40%的市场份额。

经理春田勉(Tsutomu Haruta)答复:“影象感应器属于外部设备,因而大家确信这儿不会有新的销售市场。”Sony’s advantages, according to Shoichi Kitayama, general manager, are that its sensors can see bikes and people in the dark and pictures remain sharp even in high temperatures. Come 2025, he says, the average car will have two or three image sensors. At the top end that will stretch to 10.sony汽车精英团队责任人龙潭尚一(Shoichi Kitayama)强调,sony的优点取决于,其感应器能暗夜里看到单车和路人,且图象就算在高溫自然环境中也能保持锐利。他说道,到2030年,每台汽车均值将装有两或三个影象感应器,至少的将装有10个。

“The economies of scale will be comparable to smartphones and will come close in terms of wafers used,” he says.“其规模效应将能够与智能手机相提并论,以常用的芯片在于将类似后面一种,”他说道。But he concedes those markets are new and untested — and for now are going to be smaller than the smartphone bounty.但他否定,这种新的销售市场还未经许可,现阶段显而易见要比智能手机销售市场小。Quite substantially smaller on Mr Pelayo’s reckoning. The semiconductor content per car is forecast to double from $350 to $700 by 2020 — equivalent to adding more than two iPhones, with about $150 in chip content apiece, in the average car over the next four years, or roughly one-half of an iPhone every year.依据佩拉大概的可能是要大很多。

到今年 ,每台汽车配置的半导体材料的使用价值预估将从350美元缩减到至700美元——相当于将来四年均值每台汽车降低两台iPhone多一点(每一集iPhone的集成ic一部分使用价值大概150美元),或是每一年降低半边iPhone。With about 80m cars shipped a year, this would equate to about 40m more iPhones “or less than two weeks of smartphone production”.汽车每一年的销量大概有八千万辆,因而这相当于降低大概4000万部iPhone,“或是接近两个星期的智能手机生产量”。

The numbers pan out similarly miserably for other applications: the 1m virtual reality headsets expected to be sold this year; the 12m annual servers sold or even the 50m Apple watches.别的层面运用于的数据也某种意义萧条:2020年虚拟现实技术帽子的预估销量为二百万套,网络服务器销量为1200万台,就连苹果手表的销量也仅有两千万块。Some are undeterred by the punier numbers, pointing out that smartphones are still in the picture for now, albeit growing slower and with an evolving modus operandi.一些人未被智能手机太弱于过去的销售业绩数据想起,她们觉得现阶段智能手机仍不可忽视,虽然增速升高,且运行方法产生变化。“You’ve got to look at what the smartphone brands are doing,” says Cherry Ma, tech analyst at CLSA. She spots two trends that will drive growth in certain areas: smartphone makers upgrading cameras, sound and aesthetics in an attempt to win share; and a consumer swing towards Chinese handset manufacturers.里昂证券(CLSA)高新科技投资分析师Cherry Ma说道:“你必不可少想起智能手机知名品牌在保证哪些。

”她觉得两新趋势将拓张一些行业的快速增长:智能手机制造商升級监控摄像头、声效及外型,欲意斩获市场占有率;顾客调向中国手机上制造商。This year will see as many as 20 handsets featuring dual cameras offering better image quality, up from just one device last year. While global handset sales have grown 1-2 per cent this year, Chinese brands combined are growing at 20 per cent, she says.2020年将有高达20款手机上装有影象品质最佳的双镜头,而上年仅有一款。

尽管2020年全世界销量仅有快速增长1%至2%,但中国手机品牌总销售量已经以20%的速率快速增长,她说道。“Even though the smartphone market is getting saturated, there is growth in dual camera phones so there are more image sensors in each phone,” says Sony’s Mr Haruta. He adds that while the number of smartphone players has been winnowed down, the top players are focused on cameras.sony的春田刘光答复:“尽管智能手机销售市场因此以日渐饱和,但双镜头手机上仍在快速增长,因而每手机都是会有更为多的影象感应器。”尽管许多智能手机制造商已被被淘汰,但顶尖生产商仍专心致志监控摄像头,他补充说道。

“Requests have changed, even among the Chinese smartphone manufacturers. They all want special cameras,” he says. “Even among the cheaper makers, they are also looking to expand into high-end and are at the stage where they want to add more value.”“回绝早就变化,就算中国智能手机制造商也是。她们都想特别是在的监控摄像头,”他说道,“即便是生产制造较便宜手机上的制造商,也在谋取转到高档商品,期待降低更强的使用价值。”That trend, which has been detrimental to Apple’s sales in China in particular, is helping buoy some of the top suppliers: not just those with brand names such as Sony, but also the companies investing in research and development to gain market share in niche or proprietary hardware.这一发展趋势对iPhone的在华市场销售尤其是在有益,但因此以帮助烘托一些顶尖供应商:不仅而且包含sony等知名品牌,还包含项目投资产品研发欲意在利基或专利权硬件配置行业获得市场占有率的企业。Ms Ma points to Sunny Optical, which is ramping up quantity and quality of its camera modules; while the desire for better sound plays to AAC Technologies, the Hong Kong-listed Apple supplier that is beefing up capital expenditure.Cheery Ma谈及了舜宇光学高新科技(Sunny Optical)和瑞声科技(AAC Technologies)。

前面一种进一步提高其监控摄像头控制模块的总数和品质,后面一种则获利于大家对更优声效的固执,这个新加坡上市的iPhone供应商已经不断发展资本开支。Higher resolution and sound quality, added to more complicated specifications, means higher average prices for suppliers as well as boosting quantity, says Ms Ma. “With acoustics, there is no one standard design. Vendors have to come up with their own design, so have to spend a lot on RD,” she says.Cheery Ma答复,更为简易的性能参数、高些的屏幕分辨率和更为完美的音色,对供应商来讲意味著高些的均价,还能够降低销售量。“在音质层面,没统一的设计标准。

供应商必不可少取走自身的设计方案,因而迫不得已在产品研发里花很多钱,”她说道。That — like the brave new world of self-driving cars and self-filling washing machines — may help but a gap remains. Tech analysts have identified a plateau in smartphone design outside more incremental updates in advanced imaging, which means that many people are now happy to keep hold of the smartphones already in their pockets for longer.这——如同自动驾驶轿车和全自动添衣全自动洗衣机的美丽新世界——或许不容易有一定的帮助,但差别依然不会有。技术性投资分析师寻找,除开在高級电子光学层面逐渐升級以外,智能手机设计方案陷入衰落,这意味著现如今很多人 愿意更为长期享有已在她们袋子里的智能手机。

At least until they are given a new, good reason to upgrade. Suppliers to the once-unstoppable smartphone makers will need to tighten their belts as they wait for the next wave of popular consumer innovation.至少拔到她们有一个充份的新原因进行升級。一度来势汹汹的智能手机制造商的供应商将务必勒住裤带,等待下一波大家消費艺术创意到来。

“Over time, we suspect supply chain growth will be driven by an ever broader array of products, but no individual segment will probably catch the smartphone market any time soon,” says Mr Pelayo.佩拉大概说道:“大家预测分析,伴随着时间流逝,供应链管理快速增长将遭受更为颇深类型商品的驱动器,但有可能没一切一个行业能快速平上智能手机销售市场。